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steve80
MemberHouse price crash is about quarter way through and next year we will see an additional 30-40% price cut. In my opinion anyone thinking real estate prices will be in September 2009 more than 50% from the peak prices as at the end of 2007 is hopelessly too optimistic. In current market conditions (low liquidity, increasing unemployment, high cost of funds etc) and regardless of what the National Bank does with interest rates and retail lending regulations, banks are no longer keen to lend against housing mainly because the house prices aren’t rising any more and the risk of default is significant higher. The times when banks fought for market share by creating riskier assets have passed and they realized that the fall of house prices won’t stop in the near future. I have always said that the most important supply and demand variable for the Romanian housing market was the supply and demand of credit, not of houses and this is why it is going to take a long time for prices to recover, or even to touch the bottom. As I said the banks won’t be keen to lend cheap money any time soon. The predictions that real estate buyers/ investors will be starting to come down from the mountains in a year time is way too optimistic. If you have real estate assets try to get rid of them as fast as you can if you bought them as investment and if you want to buy one would be much better to stay on cash/ alternative hedged investments and wait for the opportunities which will appear in the years to come, as mushrooms after a summer rain.Posted 1 year ago # -
geea
MemberNu stiu daca e o idee buna sa vinzi in timp de criza. E drept ca nu se intrevede vreo revenire a preturilor umflate de pana acum. Cred insa ca toata lumea este de acord ca e bine sa cumperi pe timp de criza. Aici insa arta consta a sti exact cand e punctul maxim al crizei, cand poti cumpara la cel mai mic pret?Posted 1 year ago # -
AristotelCostel
Member[quote:04591bf0fa="geea"]Nu stiu daca e o idee buna sa vinzi in timp de criza. E drept ca nu se intrevede vreo revenire a preturilor umflate de pana acum. [/quote:04591bf0fa] :lol: Deja s-au injumatatit preturile materialelor de constructii, terenurile se pot obtine "si mai moca", cererea reala era infima in comparatie cu turma atrasa de jocul piramidal imobiliar. Daca se va putea construi cu 200-300 Euro/mp, oare ar fi o idee buna sa mai dai un tun la 500-1500 Euro/mp, scapand de vreo cazatura comunistoida sau mai stiu eu ce catastrofa noua? Termenul expira in 2009. Aaaa, c-or fi inteligenti care au cumparat mai scump de atat...ramane farmecul jocurilor piramidale. :lol:Posted 1 year ago # -
aedsys
MemberOne of the biggest markets in Central and Eastern Europe (over 22 million inhabitants, 2nd after Poland). Romania has become a constancy factor in the region due to its steady economic growth, to its political, social and governmental stability. Our forecast is that Romania economy is doing remarkably well in the property market so this is the right time to enter the market. [url]http://www.ipbre.com/countryProfile/Romania/[/url]Posted 1 year ago # -
steve80
Member[quote:b3f20f64db="aedsys"]One of the biggest markets in Central and Eastern Europe (over 22 million inhabitants, 2nd after Poland). Romania has become a constancy factor in the region due to its steady economic growth, to its political, social and governmental stability. Our forecast is that Romania economy is doing remarkably well in the property market so this is the right time to enter the market. [url]http://www.ipbre.com/countryProfile/Romania/[/url][/quote:b3f20f64db] I really hope you do not believe what you have written above because this means that you are totally out of touch with the reality or you still believe that you can manipulate masses. As I said starting from 2007, 2009 is more than a challenging year for Romania. If you sit for few minutes and make a summary of the Romanian economy will figure out where the real estate market will go at least in the next 5 years. The world economy is in recession in 2009, and this period is seen as the most severe financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression. This will significantly impact Romania's economy, as the previous years performance was based largely on external money inflows which have created a huge external disequilibria fir Romania. Indeed the Romania's economic performance with strong GDP growth was mainly sustained by few sectors; mainly agriculture and construction, but this growth is unsustainable. You can already see a sharp slowdown that has taken place in industry, constructions and services which are the first signs for the poor economic performance which will come. Lending continued to slow down and this trend to continue despite the fact that NBR has changed some of the regulations in order to allow Romanians to take higher mortgage loans (if you look deeply the increase of the debt ratio is counterbalance by the depreciation of RON and increase of interest rates). The upward trend for EUR-RON exchange rate looks likely to remain intact for next two years. The economic performance of Romania will be very poor, the risks of profit/investments repatriation will increased and the companies that are interested in investing will find their access to external financing limited, due to the global lack of liquidity. The main characteristics for Romania's business environment in the period to come are the following: - No easy access to financing mainly due to high costs and low liquidity. - High volatility for the exchange rate; with not too many real possibilities to hedge the financial losses. - The businesses have to be better structured, better business plans will have to be considered and maybe new business models. Romanian managers and companies have experienced organic growth in the last years, but conditions are changing fast and I think that many of them are not prepared for what will come - Many bankruptcies will be seen in sectors that experienced rapid and unsustainable expansion, such as constructions and connected sectors, retail trade. - Many current loans will have to be restructured but the question is this possible in current market conditions? - Increase of unemployment which will negatively impact the budget and consumption. Regarding your phrase: "Our forecast is that Romania economy is doing remarkably well in the property market so this is the right time to enter the market"; which are your considerations because I'm interested to know which are the arguments for such a remark. As I told you last year, in Romania, homeowners will see the value of their properties (the ones which are advertise at prices above EUR 100k) fall at about EURO 2,000 a month and you can check this if take a look on the prices during the last 6 months. This trend will go at least for the next 12 - 24 months. So in December you will pay for a 3 rooms apartment which is currently advertise at EUR 120k less than EUR 100k so I do not think would be a smart decision to jump in the market and buy now.Posted 1 year ago # -
aedsys
MemberStrong aspects of Romania are the technologically advanced market economy with substantial government participation. Having its own natural resources, Romania has intensively developed its agricultural and industrial sectors over the past 20 years.Bucharest is 2 to 3 hours flying time from London. [url]http://www.ipbre.com/countryProfile/Romania/Market-Report/[/url] The city is served by two airports: Henri Coanda International Airport (formerly Otopeni) and Aurel Vlaicu International Airport (formerly Baneasa). [url]http://www.ipbre.com/countryProfile/Romania/Property-Management/[/url]Posted 1 year ago # -
AristotelCostel
Member:lol: @aedsys Bucurestiul, orasul bordurilor, va cunoaste primul an de recesiune economica dupa marea baloniada imobiliara. Vrei sa folosesti avionul ca mijloc de transport la locul de munca intr-una dintre marile corporatii care omoara oameni cu zile in Romania? Iti recomand sa folosesti Otopeniul!!! 2-3 ore de la Londra la Bucuresti e cam putin, ce sa zic, da' mai pune 2 ore pana-n oras. :lol:Posted 1 year ago #
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