Conform unui articol publicat in Wall Street, preturile apartamentelor ar fi scazut mult mai mult daca nu ar fi fost programul Prima Casa.
Ce parere aveti, va mai continua scaderea preturilor sau Prima Casa va tine in frau preturile?
I expect that property prices in Romania will continue to decrease during the next 2-3 years and in the next 9 months of 2010 we will see prices cut around 20-25%.
When I made this forecast I have considered the following factors for prices sliding:
• Unemployment will rise to around 10-11% and more and more families will not be afford anymore the mortgage payments
• Lenders have become reluctant to lend with LTV higher than 60-70% and the government program is not made for prices above EUR 70k. As a consequence the prices will continue to adjust towards the affordability thresholds of EUR 40-70k.
• To make if even worse for the families that can not afford anymore the mortgage payments they can not sale and buy something cheaper as the decline of housing prices has brought them to negative equity.
• Most mortgage loans are variable rate, making the households with mortgages sensitive to interest rate changes. As the western countries will recover the interest rates will start to increase and potential increase of EURIBOR from current minimum levels (EURIBOR 6m is below 1% while in Jan 2008 it was around 4.7%) will put additional pressure on mortgage payments.
• Rental yields have decline and will continue to decline as a consequence the buy-to-let investors have disappeared and the gap between the depressed solvable demand and supply will continue to increase.
• As more homeowners default, lenders will have to start making tough decisions about foreclosing on these properties, as it has became clear that the homeowners cannot pay the overdue installments and become current on the loans. The increase of foreclosure will bring many properties on the market adding additional pressure on the current increasing inventories.
• New constructions with lower costs for land, labor and materials will come onto the market in the years to come. These perspectives will increase the pressure on the prices for current stock of houses/ apartments.
With property prices declining and the cost of renting a house also coming down I think it may be advisable for the first time buyers to wait at least till the second part of 2010 before stepping onto the property market. 9-12 months from now could be a better time for first-time buyers as the market is likely to be 20-25% below current level.
The property slump has created some opportunities for first-time buyers but the best ones are not on the market yet. Renting is still more advisable than buying a house in the current economic climate.
I had to make a new account as the administrator has blocked me and I could not post from the old account. It seems that he does not like that posts do not encourage readers to buy.
Take care what and when you buy!
Steve
Hi Steve,
Glad to see you're back. We haven't blocked any accounts, we've just switched from the old phpbb forum to a new software, based on bbpress. We've kept all accounts and all posts, nothing has been deleted or blocked, we've even sent you an email inviting you to post.
Thanks for the new forecast, as documented as all your posts, I hope we'll be seeing more of you from now on. :)
Best,
Eugenia
PS: It looks like you are right, all accounts created on the old forum were marked as inactive, we're working on this bug right now. Let me know if you would like us to reassign this post to your old account.