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steve80
MemberA house, much like a Burger King, is a basket of raw materials, goods, and services. But, unlike the Burger King real estate is used to hedge against inflation, save for old age, and speculate. Prices of residential and commercial property reflect macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation, unemployment, average wages etc). Homeowners in both the USA and Europe, spurred on by aggressive marketing and the lowest interest rates during the last decade, have been refinancing old, more expensive, mortgages and heavily borrowing against their "equity" - i.e., against the dramatic rise in the market prices of their houses. Assets bubbles tend to both enhance and cannibalize each other. Profits from capital markets are used to buy property and drive up its values. Borrowing against residential equity fuels overvaluations but when one bubble bursts the other initially benefits from an influx of funds withdrawn in panic from the alternative investment as people shifts from one investment preference to another. Currently the consumption is correlated with lifelong projected earnings rather than with savings and investments returns. In the long run, the rise in house prices cannot exceed the increase in disposable income. The effects of the bursting of a property bubble are usually stronger and prolonged than the outcomes of capital market crash. Real estate is much more leveraged because debt levels can well exceed home equity ("negative equity") in a downturn. Nowadays, loans are not eroded by high inflation as long as the banks use adjustable rate mortgages, but retail clients will be affected by the interest rates rise. With both the equity and real estate markets in obscurity, people will revert to cash, gold, bonds and save more, leading to deflation or recession or both.Posted 3 years ago # -
armagheddon
Memberchestie de gusturi.... Domnule Costel, liceean sau pensionar, roman deghizat sau danez expat, intotdeauna voi prefera o argumentatie si o structurare solida a discursului (vezi steve80) mistocarelii autohtone (vezi AristotelCostel cu "seceta" si "cumparati acum ca se scumpeste")... Sunt convins ca piata de real-estate din Romania este foarte departe de rationalitatile economice (ca sa nu spun [i:ebeb785b7a]economic fundamentals[/i:ebeb785b7a]). Este o piata mica, cu volume relativ mici, fara o statistica reala, bazata pe vorbe/zvonuri/instinct de turma, in care tot felul de ghertzoi (scuze pentru alegerea de cuvinte, insa am o repulsie viscerala fata de acest grup) se cred peste noapte [i:ebeb785b7a]real-estate developers[/i:ebeb785b7a], construiesc oricum (urbanismul este o chestie pe care ei o calca zilnic in picioare impreuna cu Primaria), gandesc pe termen foarte scurt (pana cand incaseaza banul si pleaca de pe santier), nu considera aproape niciodata publicul tinta si zona rezidentiala tinta. Este o piata dominata de profitul rapid, drept urmare coruptia si lacomia distrug orice abordare bazata pe bun-simt, lege, rationalizare economica. Insa oricat de mult m-as chinui nu voi intelege cum reusiti simplificari de forma: [quote:ebeb785b7a]Cum explici inflatia din ...Romania, Bulgaria, Letonia, Estonia, Lituania? Toate capodoperele astea au aceeasi problema...real-estate...bubble. [/quote:ebeb785b7a] V-as ramane indatorat daca ne-ati explica modul (modelul chiar pentru ca generalizati) prin care in tarile mentionate [i:ebeb785b7a]the housing bubble[/i:ebeb785b7a] este radacina tuturor relelor, si in mod specific a inflatiei. Poate ca voi reusi sa inteleg astfel cum macroeconomica devine un fel de imagine din satelit a real-estate-ului. Poate voi reusi sa inteleg cum, in Romania cel putin, faptul ca avem o economie care mimeaza productivitatea si in consecinta nu face fata unor presiuni pe salarii si pe preturi venind din afara (capitalul autohton este magnific dar lipseste cu majoritara desavarsire) este foarte direct legat de faptul ca apartamentele vechi nu au cumparatori desi preturile lor cresc zilnic in ziare. Nu as indrazni sa pornesc o discutie "consumism UE vs US: modele si tendinte": sincer nu cred ca sunteti pregatit. UE cere crestere economica organica si disciplina bugetara (mentinerea sub prag a derapajelor exercitiului bugetar) ceea ce, in buna parte, inseamna lupta cu mecanismul bulei. Nu va bateti capul, daca doriti D-voastra dobanzile de politica monetara (cele nationale, nu cele directionate de BCE - un organism al UE care se ocupa cu....nevermind!) vor rupe inflatia pe genunchi (lol) si vor da cu bula de real-estate de toti peretii... Imi cer scuze pentru sarcasm, dar sunt un autohton care va ceda tentatiei mishtocarelii cand e provocat ! Pentru mine subiectul e inchis. Steve-O: I grew to like your line of resoning. Yes, housing is a base indicator for the level of consumism (inflated consumer appetite) one economy is willing to take/use. [quote:ebeb785b7a]Currently the consumption is correlated with lifelong projected earnings rather than with savings and investments returns.[/quote:ebeb785b7a] True. And that makes housing credit very similar to stock markets (securitization of mortgage credit comes natural afterwards, right ?!). The projection over lifelong earnings contains also projectionism in itself (related to labour costs, taxation, raw materials, etc), so it makes it a very volatile market, very much susceptible to all-around change, which is not what you would expect from a base indicator, right? [quote:ebeb785b7a]when one bubble bursts the other initially benefits from an influx of funds withdrawn in panic from the alternative investment as people shifts from one investment preference to another[/quote:ebeb785b7a] I will have to say that my experience tells me that when the bubble bursts, everybody pulls out and focuses on saving every penny rather then identifying unique opportunities anywhere else. All investors, small and large, become very much protectionist-oriented towards their investments (damage-control mood) and their appetite for new risks diminishes reaaally fast. Stocks become almost prohibited, gold and bonds become safe-heavens. So, personally I don't believe in the "bubble overfeeding bubble" model you're presenting. Unless we're talking about something really small, very small fotprint, where a real-estate bubble in Ro does not foreseeingly affect one investment on the stock market in Shanghai. But if it's US being hit by the bubble-burst then everybody will just become very cautious. Actually what I think happens is that if a real-estate bubble bursts in Romania then investors will start backing off from everything and this will further send shockwaves in an underaged/inefficient Romanian economy. If the bubble bursts in US, UE or Japan then nobody will be able to back off, 'cause nobody can go outside planet Earth, right ?! ... Yen and Euro support the USD, stock markets support one another, everything is already very much mingled into one gigantic octopus that engulfes the whole planet so there will be very limited options for money... Except gold, bonds, money under the matters, etc.Posted 3 years ago # -
AristotelCostel
Member[color=blue:7a8edf1796]Banii cei multi din imobiliare merg drept in consum, nu o cotesc spre investitii sau productie. Se ia de la banca munca viitoare a cumparatorului (19 venituri anuale), se da suma vanzatorului, care vanzator se apuca de consum. Ce inflatie mai clara si mai frumoasa vreti? - cererea stimuleaza importul - banii se baga mai mult in profitul constructorului si al speculatorului decat in imobil. (chiar si 200%) - daca nu stimuleaza importul, se exporta profitul[/color:7a8edf1796] PPosted 3 years ago # -
steve80
MemberWith rising interest rates and a 20%-40% fall in home values would imply that many investors would have negative equity in their homes and would have a big incentive to put the home keys in an envelope and send it to their mortgage bank. As you can see the price of old apartments already lost 7-9% comparing with December 2007 and most of the banks will not accept anymore as mortgage houses that have been built before 1980. The commercial real estate loan market will soon enter into a meltdown similar to the retail loans as we will see an increase in credit spreads for non-residential mortgages/ loans. Lending practices in commercial real estate are as reckless as those in residential real estate. A frozen housing market may lead to a bust in residential construction as no one will want to build houses/ apartments in “ghost” areas. The banks losses on their portfolio of leveraged loans are starting to grow. The ability of financial institutions to syndicate and securitize their leveraged loans will be at serious risk. so these leveraged loans will be stuck on the balance sheet of financial institutions at values below par. Deepening problems in the economy and in the financial markets and poor risk managements will lead some of these financial institutions to review their strategies. The stock markets in Romania and abroad have started pricing a recession and a sharp global economic slowdown. The fall in stock markets proves that investors have realized that the economic downturn is more severe. US and global equity markets have entered into a persistent bear market as most indexes have fallen sharply. Even the easing of the liquidity crunch after central banks' actions will reverse, as high reference interest rate and credit concerns will keep interbank spread wide in spite of further injections of liquidity by central banks. A vicious circle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction and “fire” sales of assets at below fundamental prices will ensue leading to a cascading and mounting cycle of losses and further credit contraction. In illiquid market actual market prices will be even lower. Market prices will include an illiquidity discount on top of the discount due to the credit and fundamental problems of the underlying assets that are backing the distressed financial assets. Capital losses lead to margin calls and further reduction of risk taken by investors that are now forced to mark to market their positions. In my opinion it’s not easy to manage and control a contagious financial crisis especially because in Romania the monetary, fiscal, regulatory and financial policies are not coherent, timely and credible.Posted 3 years ago # -
armagheddon
MemberDomnule Costel, In primul rand vreau sa-mi cer scuze pentru sarcasmul nelalocul lui din postul meu anterior. Recitindu-l imi dau seama ca este pe alocuri atins de aroganta, stare de spirit nociva care nu poate fi justificata sau [i:5d8fe8a32e]inteleasa/acceptata[/i:5d8fe8a32e]. Raman cu nedumerirea: ce vreti D-voastra ? Ce vrea Steve ? Cum se face ca va alaturati in acelasi thread ?! Vreti sa fie porcaiti speculantii, tehnicile debile de manipulare a pietei, lacomia, prostul gust, incalcarea legii etc ? Desi am o opinie ferma asupra subiectului:... [quote:5d8fe8a32e]Sunt convins ca piata de real-estate din Romania este foarte departe de rationalitatile economice (ca sa nu spun economic fundamentals). Este o piata mica, cu volume relativ mici, fara o statistica reala, bazata pe vorbe/zvonuri/instinct de turma, in care tot felul de ghertzoi (scuze pentru alegerea de cuvinte, insa am o repulsie viscerala fata de acest grup) se cred peste noapte real-estate developers, construiesc oricum (urbanismul este o chestie pe care ei o calca zilnic in picioare impreuna cu Primaria), gandesc pe termen foarte scurt (pana cand incaseaza banul si pleaca de pe santier), nu considera aproape niciodata publicul tinta si zona rezidentiala tinta. Este o piata dominata de profitul rapid, drept urmare coruptia si lacomia distrug orice abordare bazata pe bun-simt, lege, rationalizare economica. [/quote:5d8fe8a32e] ... nu cred ca pot sa aduc valoare sau lumina prin comentariile mele. Nu pot decat sa exprim evidentul, ceea ce nu cred ca e in vreun fel constructiv macar. Vreti sa incep a profeti "armagheddon"-ul :!: si sfarsitul lumii lui Popescu din Drumul Taberei precum si al lui John, Pierre, Honza, Gabor si alti cetateni ai lumii in jurul carora se vor prabusi pietele imobiliare si lumea va intra in recesiune/foamete/razboaie/etc ?! Nu pot sa o fac pentru ca nu cred in asta. Ceea ce cred ca trebuie cules din mesajul lui steve este ca exista o amenintare reala ca un soc economic sa aiba loc si ca acest soc are un potential de efect in lant. Insa daca izolam acest soc de context putem ajunge usor la concluzii pripite/eronate. Vreti sa spun ca toate viciile Romaniei isi gasesc sau isi vor gasi (in eventualitatea unui bubble-burst) radacinile in relele pietei imobiliare? N-o s-o fac pentru ca nu cred in asa ceva. Romania este ca un om bolnav, proaspat operat de economie socialista (semi-extirpata), care are perfuzii de capital strain si e amenintat de o infectie de imobiliare. Acuma, daca infectia este foarte serioasa (temperatura peste 41 de grade) si perfuziile alea se opresc, viata pacientului e in pericol. Dar orice simplificare are pericolele ei si [i:5d8fe8a32e]judecatile de valoare[/i:5d8fe8a32e] extrase pe genunchi la fieraria lui Iocan pot sa-ti dea momentan o stare de bine dar nu sunt in fapt cu nimic mai realiste decat povestile cu grevistii comunisti de la atelierele Grivita. De exemplu, in situatia de mai sus, ce anume ameninta viata pacientului ? greu de spus... De ce sa nu trecem peste evidente/platitudini si sa incercam sa ne uitam un pic altfel la piata de imobiliare din Romania? Primul pas se face zilele astea cu punerea bazelor unor informatii statistice privind tranzactiile imobiliare. Ce credeti, de ce e bine, ce pericole ascunde :wink: ? Apoi avem o intreaga industrie a intermedierii imobiliare, de la mini-agentia de cartier pana la firme de talie mondiala: este o piata libera, concurentiala, corecta? E o piata in crestere sau in scadere? Cum au evoluat preturile practicate la intermediere? Ar fi relevanta segmentarea evolutiei pietei pe spatii de birouri/depozite/rezidential/terenuri ? Cum contribuie intermediatorii la formarea pretului pe piata? De ce ? Apoi avem o zona de obicei trecuta cu vederea: ANEVAR. Cum se stabileste/evalueaza valoarea de piata a unei proprietati? Cum ar fi corect sa se faca? Sunt evaluatorii niste profesionisti obiectivi sau nu? Apoi ar fi corect sa vedem chiriile si evolutia chiriilor proiectat peste preturile apartamentelor: chiria este sub, egala sau peste rata creditului pentru un apartament dat ? De ce ? Ce rata a rentabilitatii are business-ul de inchiriere pe termen mediu/lung? O cota semnificativa din apartamentele nou construite este retrasa de pe piata imobiliara de investitorii care asteapta venituri din chirii. Ce inseamna asta ? Si nu in ultimul rand, pentru a da o tenta de realism, putina culoare in obraji discutiei si pentru a nu alunca intr-o teoretizare uscata/seaca, va invit sa spuneti in ce stati, cum ati ajuns acolo, cum/daca v-ati lovit de piata imobiliara si ce asteptari/intentii aveti. Daca insa threadul se limiteaza la "Huo hotii", "Bine ca esti tu destept, de parca nu stie toata lumea ca de fapt masonii l-au pus pe Isarescu la BNR ca sa vanda tara puterilor oculte" sau "din cauza crizei imobiliare vor scadea salariile" atunci, cu respect, va trebui sa-mi iau la revedere !Posted 3 years ago # -
AristotelCostel
Member[quote:05b05dd20d="armagheddon"]Raman cu nedumerirea: ce vreti D-voastra ? Ce vrea Steve ? Cum se face ca va alaturati in acelasi thread ?! Vreti sa fie porcaiti speculantii, tehnicile debile de manipulare a pietei, lacomia, prostul gust, incalcarea legii etc ? Desi am o opinie ferma asupra subiectului:...[/quote:05b05dd20d] Primul comentariu al lui steve e un copy-paste al unei povestioare americane. La ce e utilPosted 3 years ago # -
steve80
MemberPeople in Romania have got access to debt like never before and have lived like they were rich. I don’t think people (the mass, not the bunch of so called “Romanian business men”) are rich. Romanians came to believe that debt and wealth is the same thing, but sometimes it’s not so “healthy” to spend the money before you have earned it, especially if you buy overstated assets. Easy credit is like having a nitro button on your car dash that you could push and create performance. This masked poor fundamentals in the market, but we will see corrections. In Romania buying homes became a vehicle for get-rich-quick schemes and media is used by some “smart guys” to manipulate the crowd. Every real estate website or broker in Romania seems to be advertising “the best investment opportunity”, promising massive capital appreciation and exaggerated rates of return. Considering macroeconomic conditions, this is only poor marketing. So called real estate analysts are continuing saying that in Romania we can not talk about a bubble, but sound financial investing based on solid fundamentals. When I ask about their arguments they all are popping up “the gap between demand and supply” and no other solid arguments. Indeed currently the demand on the real estate market is significantly higher comparing with the supply, but this demand is not sustained by purchasing power. My question is …Are they looking at a real/ solvable demand? If you go on the street and ask people if they want a Ferrari most of them will say “yes” even if they can not afford one…so can we say that we have huge demand for Ferrari in Romania? I think that Romania's housing market is reversing and the developers and owners of old communist flats will prefer to cut prices and sell rather than end up with large costly unsold stocks.Posted 3 years ago #
