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Alexadi
MemberCredit excess is obviously more linked to consumer credit. - credit to people with no credit history - credit to people with no job history considering the depth of the black economy and the number of romanians working abroad, this may be explainable, however: - credit to professionals in the banking, construction, retail and government sectors is problematic. All are vulnerable to a slowdown in credit expansion. Mortgage credit is not so risky. - most romanians own 100% of their homes. Around 90% of owners. And 90% of romanians live in the house they own. -Thus the vast majority of romanians don't have a secondary home. Why should they sell when prices drop? They have no mortgage= no pressure, and they have nowhere to go if they sell. Very few, like 1% of owners, have the new mortgages with installments= to 70% of net income or with less than 25% money down. And even fewer have bought at the absolute top of the market and risk to become upside down if prices drop 10-15% from current levels. Banks in Romania have no secondary market for the mortgages they issue. No government entity like Fannie Mae, no securities market whatsoever for mortgages ever existed, banks have to keep the mortgage on their balance and take all the risks themselves. Also the NBR targets inflation and has little simpathy for foreigh shareholders of banks. So banks were far more prudent. BTW, what should be the price of a 10 gram piece of carbon? Think of a diamond and say E100k? Why? because diamonds are rare. supply and demand you see. Homes for sale in romania are rare. Thus their price. Please show me in romania the hundreds of thousands of newly built and vacant flats, like in spain or USA, and then i'll understand the annalogy with those countries thay you make.Posted 4 years ago # -
armagheddon
Member... as one of the characters in [i:328c287031]Commando: Behind Enemy Lines[/i:328c287031] used to say! Domnule Costel, am inteles, sunteti convins ca totul e simplu, n-are sens sa complicati lucrurile, vreti sa emiteti judecati de valoare de genul: [quote:328c287031]...e bine ca romPosted 4 years ago # -
armagheddon
MemberScriu in Romana pentru ca stiu ca Steve intelege Romana, altfel as scrie in engleza. Steve, am I mistaking ?! Bun venit pe thread. Postul tau e [i:7dcb2946f5]refreshing[/i:7dcb2946f5] pentru ca orice punct nou de vedere aduce o mai buna intelegere asupra temei. Intr-adevar, creditul aduce efectul de levier datorita caruia preturile de pe imobiliar sunt astazi unde sunt. Totusi nu cred ca explica tot: media creditului ipotecar/imobiliar pe 2007 in Bucuresti a fost de 70 000 EUR, care acopera doar o parte din preturile care erau promovate in piata (preturile de tranzactionare nu sunt deloc transparente, sa recunoastem). Ceea ce inseamna ca fie tranzactiile s-au facut preponderent la valori mici (locuinte vechi sau locuinte noi de maxim 2 camere), fie a existat un aport semnificativ de cash. Ceea ce este perfect posibil, banii trimisi acasa de romanii care muncesc in strainatate nu sunt putini; nu cred ca putem considera economiile, chiar ale sectorului instarit, mai degraba cred ca putem considera credite secundare mascate (aport de cash provenit dintr-un credit de nevoi personale, etc) Bottom line: creditul este principalul responsabil pentru multiplicarea puterii aparente de cumparare, dar nu singurul ?! :?: [quote:7dcb2946f5]Mortgage credit is not so risky. - most romanians own 100% of their homes. Around 90% of owners. And 90% of romanians live in the house they own. -Thus the vast majority of romanians don't have a secondary home. Why should they sell when prices drop? They have no mortgage= no pressure, and they have nowhere to go if they sell. [/quote:7dcb2946f5] Creditul securizat de un bun imobiliar nu este foarte riscant, corect, insa asta cata vreme valoarea bunului nu intra in zona de negative equity de care zicea Steve: daca apartamentul a fost evaluat la 100K, creditul e facut la 75K si valoarea de piata a apartamentului scade la sub 75K, banca intra pe pierdere (practic ramane doar sa o marcheze ca atare cand primeste cheile de la client :wink:). Insa in Romania doar in ultimul timp bancile au practicat LTV (Loan To Value) de aproape 100%, plus ca normele de creditare au cerut avans (care va fi primul care "dispare" din buzunarul clientului la scaderea valorii de piata, banca ramanand acoperita), deci probabil la scaderi de 20-25% ale preturilor imobilelor bancile nu vor fi afectate, deci da, creditul ipotecar nu e foarte riscant ;-) ! Cred ca remarca/intrebarea este foarte buna totusi: parerea mea personala este ca cei care vor vinde vor fi investitorii in principal. Se estimeaza ca din 89 si pana astazi s-au construit cca 10 000 unitati locative (in alte tari se construiesc 5000 anual, dar asta-i alta poveste). Dintre care aproximativ 50% nu sunt locuite de cumparatori pentru ca au fost achizitionate pentru specula (revindere ulterioara cu profit) sau pentru inchiriere (conform unui studiu recent al unei agentii poloneze). Presiunea acestor cumparatori precum si atmosfera generalizata de "cumparati acum ca mai incolo se scumpeste" a condus inclusiv cumparatorii ordinari (care intentionau sa cumpere pentru uz propriu) spre achizitii in conditiile unor preturi deja grotesti si impotriva bunului simt investitional. De mentionat ca daca investitorii/speculantii au investit cu predilectie in apartamente noi, cumparatorul ordinar a trebuit sa se orienteze catre preturi mai accesibile, ceea ce a insemnat apartamente in blocuri vechi (chiar daca preturile per metru patrat erau/sunt chiar mai mari decat in blocurile noi, desi raportul chiriei lunare pe metru patrat e invers datorita calitatii, publicului tinta, etc). Presupunand ca preturile cad, cei care vor vinde vor fi speculatorii/investitorii. Care reprezinta se pare o cota sensibila. De asemenea, avand in vedere provocarile de acasa ale unor investitori (presiuni financiare generate de depresiunea economica din SUA), probabil vor alege sa-si marcheze profitul si sa se retraga de pe piata romaneasca (oarecum independent de evolutia preturilor de aici). Detinatorul ordinar de casa si/sau contract de credit ipotecar nu va vinde, si chiar in situatia in care ajunge la negative equity nu vad sa se-ntample afluxul de plicuri cu cheile de la casa trimise catre creditori cum mentiona Steve. Romania nu e US. Cand speculatorii/investitorii vor decide sa-si marcheze profiturile, pe o piata deloc matura, fooooarte emotionala, bazata pe zvon si cu o tensiune acumulata deja de ceva timp (ma refer la stand-still-ul pe care-l avem astazi in tranzactionare), atunci in mod sigur piata se va dezechilibra. Cat de tare, cat de mult, daca va fi o zgaltaire sau cutremur serios, cred ca e foarte greu de spus. Putem sa ne gandim la doua extreme, scenariul 1 si scenariul 2, acceptand ca putem avea orice variatie in-between. Scenariul 1: Panica. Preturile cad, cumparatorii se feresc sa tranzactioneze (asteptand ziua de maine cand preturile vor fi inca mai mici), potentialul crizei pune pe jar BNR (care se va agita sa ia masuri pentru a impiedica focul sa ajunga la banci si creditori ipotecari), guvern si politicieni (care vor cauta tapi ispasitori pentru a-si salva imaginea in an electoral), media (care va fi fericita sa ia toate acestea si sa le exagereze teribil incat sa alimenteze si mai mult o piata emotionala cu zvonuri si "inevitabile" cataclisme). Preturile coboara si mai mult (cu 30-40% sub nivelurile de azi), deja majoritatea investitorilor si-au marcat deja de mult profitul, bancile si BNR-ul relaxeaza costurile de creditare (in special pentru transferurile de creanta apare o piata speciala in acest gen de criza), cumparatorii oricum sunt foarte multi si vor fi de ajuns 2 zile de tranzactionare (probabil investitorii se vor muta din nou primii la achizitie pe pozitii deja foarte joase) pentru a incetini/opri caderea preturilor. Scenariul 2: Apar derapaje de la confruntarea tacuta a non-tranzactionarii la preturi prea mari. Pe alocuri preturile scad. Apoi preturile scad si mai mult, insa doar pe segmentul de apartamente vechi si nu e o regula. Mass-media bate toba pe scaderi pe care nu le vede toata lumea. Agentiile de intermediere mentin nivelul de comisionare si previziunile optimiste (cel putin asupra viitorului propriu). Preturile la anumite imobile scad cu 15-20 la suta, insa scaderile sunt temperate rapid de cumparatorii mult prea multi care asteapta un apartament pe care si-l permit in sfarsit. Daca vreti sa adaugati inca unul sau mai multe scenarii, fiti bineveniti. De asemenea, observatiile sunt binevenite (ma astept sa fiu etichetat drept un agent mascat al lui Zilisteanu de catre d-nul Costel care va veni cu scenariul 3 razboi civil, dar nu ma refer la el).Posted 4 years ago # -
arx
MemberTind sa cred ca Steve are dreptate si ceea ce prezice el se bazeaza pe o analiza complexa a economiei mondiale. Ca sa va mai schimbati ideile cititi ce se intampla la ora actuala cu piata metalelor pretioase. Cine vinde si cine cumpara. La ora actuala pe glob se invart cel putin 10000 mld. de dolari de junk bonds, care nu au reprezentare in economia reala si pe care bancile si le paseaza de la unii la altii.Suntem clar intr-o situatie de criza profunda pentru ca guvernele au cedat bancherilor de doi lei si i-au lasat sa construiasca o economie financiara mondiala, dar la un moment dat aceste sume fabuloase care exista doar pe hartie sunt transformate in bani, si presiunea creste pe bancile care nu au bani "fizici" ci doar crente dobanzi si alte hartii, au doar active fara acoperire si se inatampla ce se intampla in state. Uitativa la numarul de revolte in tarile subdezvoltate, pentru prima oara de ani buni situatia a devenit exploziva, oamenilor le este foame si se revolta. Inflatia in state tot creste, pana unde? pretul aurului a atins 1000 dolari/uncia dar este la jumatate ca valoare fata de criza din 73 cand echivala cu 2000$ , barilula ajuns la 115$, cerealele s-au dublate. DE ce? pentru ca "the hot shots of finance" revin cu picioarele pe pamant si incearca sa-si inscrie in economia reala, productiva pozitiile fantasmagorice pe care le aveau pana acuma. Asa ca tind sa cred ca din pacate in anii care vin vom asista la o reorganizare mondiala profunda. Am gasit chestia asta la un moment dat si tind sa-i cred pe oamenii astia pentru ca previziunile li s-au adeverit din pacate. http://www.leap2020.eu/index.phpPosted 4 years ago # -
steve80
MemberAs I said before the growth in consumer spending has been heavily debt-fuelled, with attractive fixed interest rates for a short period. People who have borrowed money will see significant higher installments when the interest rate will become variable after maximum one year. Many households are taking on heavy long term repayment obligations at a time when house prices have reached a historical peak which is not the smartest decision. People have to make their budgets and forecast when they sign a long term agreement with a bank or a consumer finance company. For a loan of EURO 100.000 with an effective interest rate of 9% (average current mortgage loans effective interest rate in Romania) your estimated monthly payments are EURO 804.62 and you will pay EURO 189,665 in interest over the life of the loan, so total amount reimbursed will be EURO 289.665. If the interest rate goes up to 9.5% your estimated monthly payments are EURO 840.85 and you will pay EURO 202,708 in interest over the life of the loan (total reimbursed amount EURO 302.708). Check how looks the reimbursement schedule for a EURO 100.000 loan with an effective interest rate of 9% for 30 years. Year Start_balance Interest Installment End_Balance 1 100,000 8,972 9,655 99,317 2 99,317 8,908 9,655 98,570 3 98,570 8,838 9,655 97,752 4 97,752 8,761 9,655 96,858 5 96,858 8,678 9,655 95,880 6 95,880 8,586 9,655 94,810 7 94,810 8,485 9,655 93,640 8 93,640 8,376 9,655 92,361 9 92,361 8,256 9,655 90,961 10 90,961 8,124 9,655 89,430 11 89,430 7,981 9,655 87,755 12 87,755 7,824 9,655 85,923 13 85,923 7,652 9,655 83,919 14 83,919 7,464 9,655 81,728 15 81,728 7,258 9,655 79,330 16 79,330 7,033 9,655 76,708 17 76,708 6,787 9,655 73,840 18 73,840 6,518 9,655 70,703 19 70,703 6,224 9,655 67,272 20 67,272 5,902 9,655 63,518 21 63,518 5,550 9,655 59,413 22 59,413 5,165 9,655 54,922 23 54,922 4,744 9,655 50,010 24 50,010 4,283 9,655 44,638 25 44,638 3,779 9,655 38,761 26 38,761 3,228 9,655 32,334 27 32,334 2,625 9,655 25,303 28 25,303 1,965 9,655 17,613 29 17,613 1,244 9,655 9,201 30 9,201 454 9,655 0 Total 189,665 289,650Posted 4 years ago # -
Alexadi
MemberVery good analysis. However you left out some facts. One year introductory low interest is used to flip houses in USA, while in Romania it is used to give the new owner a break until he renovates the appartment. Wages have increased steadily in real terms, by 20-30% per year and are forecasted to increase by 10% this year. As opposed to stagnating wages for many years in USA. Prices were at a peak, but what is a peak whan the market started 15 years ago and has grown 1500%. Almost every year prices were at their 'hystorical' peak. Wages are at their peak too. Economic growth, foreign investments, credit growth, all at all time highs. A peak means a high after which a drop ocurs. Is there a drop in wages?, in investments? Credit, yes, it shrinked and prices are down accordingly. Furthermore you take into account a rate of 9%. For 30 years. Since Romania is a member of the EU, why assume that credit will be as expensive for Romania 10-20 even 30 years from now, as if Romania will remain exacly the same, just as risky, at the exact development stage it is now in relation to the rest of the EU. You assume absolutely no catching-up whatsoever. Then you mention nothing of inflation. At 3% per year euro inflation, that 800E rate will become 329E in real terms, 30 years from now. Just the same, what if that budget households make, include even mild wage increases, like 5% in real terms, per year, a very conservative estimate considering what has happened in the recent past. By definition a 30 year credit is taken by a ~30 year old so he may climb further the corporate ladder, in the next decades. Add that increase in wages to lower real monthly payments. IMHO, what will bring a decline in prices is the building of new homes. Concrete, steel, bangladesh workers cost the same everywhere so homes should cost the same over the long term. Until new homes are built, prices for old apartments will depend on top wages and credit.Posted 4 years ago #
